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SCCA Magazine |
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More work
in 2011?
By Ben Bartolotto, Research Director, Construction Industry Research Board
California construction volume, private and
public combined, reached an estimated $41.5
billion in 2010, up 6.2 percent from 2009’s
$39.1 billion but down a devastating 53.9
percent from 2006, when total construction
volume was $90.0 billion. Happily, total
construction volume is forecast to increase
again in 2011, increasing 16.1 percent to $48.2
billion. That increase, however, is expected to
be primarily in private building construction.
There will be little change in the public-works
sector.
Heavy construction
In 2010, heavy
(non-building) construction hit $10.0 billion,
up 6.5 percent from 2009, but down 25.3 percent
from 2006’s total of $13.4 billion. The largest
component of the heavy construction sector is
roads and bridges, which only reached $3.7
billion in 2010, falling 5.4 percent from 2009
and the lowest spending level since 2005’s $3.32
billion (adjusted for inflation).
Contracts and
starts for the balance of heavy construction,
which includes utilities, rail, water and sewage
treatment, dams, river and harbor work, power
plants, airports, parks and sitework, totalled
$6.29 billion in 2010, up 15.0 percent from
2009. The largest category in this segment,
water and sewer construction, climbed 29.5
percent in 2010 to $2.9 billion from 2009’s
total of $2.2 billion. While this is an
improvement, it’s still down 4.9 percent from
2008’s $3.0 billion (adjusted for inflation).
In
2011, heavy construction is forecast to remain
almost level at $10.05 billion, up just 0.6
percent from 2010. That poor showing includes a
5.4-percent decline in roads and bridges offset
by a 4.1-percent increase in the balance of
heavy construction.
Residential building
Residential building, including new building and
alterations and additions, reached an estimated
$13.2 billion in 2010. While that’s up 8.0
percent from 2009 levels, it was still down a
record-setting 67.8 percent from 2006.
Continuing to improve in 2011, residential
building should climb 42.5 percent to $18.8
billion.
New housing units were an estimated
41,600 in 2010, up 14.3 percent from 2009’s
36,400 units. While it’s headed in the right
direction finally, that total is still down 74.7
percent from 2006. New housing unit totals for
2008 through 2011 are forecast to be lower than
in any prior year since 1954, when we began
tracking the numbers.
In 2011, expect new
housing units to reach 67,500, up 62.3 percent
from 2010.
Private non-residential building
Private non-residential building, including new
and alterations and additions, totalled an
estimated $11.1 billion in 2010, on par with
2009’s $11.0 billion. However, it was down 53.4 percent from 2007
totals, when private non-residential building
reached $23.7 billion (adjusted for inflation).
Previously, the lowest level of performance for
this sector was $13.1 billion in 1993. In 2011,
expect this sector to climb 9.4 percent to $12.1
billion.
Public buildings
The public-buildings
sector (government owned buildings) climbed 11.3
percent in 2010 to $7.3 billion. While the
increase was welcome, it was still down 41.4
percent from 2006’s $12.4 billion (adjusted for
inflation). Schools and community colleges, the
largest category in the public-buildings sector
grew 6.1 percent in 2010 to an estimated $3.0
billion.
Construction of state colleges and
universities reached $860 million in 2010. And
while this was up an impressive 153.7 percent
from 2009 spending of $339 million, it was still
down 37.2 percent from 2008’s $1.4 billion. For
2011, expect the public buildings sector to
decline only 0.1 percent to $7.3 billion.
Construction employment
California construction
employment averaged an estimated 546,300 in
2010, which was down 11.9 percent from 2009 and
the lowest level recorded since 1996. The drop
in employment follows a 21.3 percent decline in
2009 from 2008 levels. In 2011, construction
employment should increase slightly to 562,000.
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